Let's briefly count off and nickname some of the leading older-kids-are-smarter theories reviewed by the economists, which push back against the principle of first pancakes.

1) The Divided-Attention Theory: Earlier-born siblings enjoy more time, care and attention than later-born siblings because attention is divided between fewer kids.

2) The Bad-Genes Theory:The strong evidence of higher IQs among first children leads some to believe that later kids are receiving diminished "genetic endowment."

3) The I've-Had-It-With-Kids! Theory: Some parents decide to stop having more children after a difficult experience raising one. In that case, the poorer performance of later children isn't genetic, so much as selection bias: Some parents keep having children until they have one that's so problematic it makes them say "enough."

4) The No-One-to-Teach Theory: This is the idea that older siblings benefit from the ability to teach their younger brothers and sisters. Building these teaching skills helps them build learning skills that makes them better in school.

5) The Divorce Theory: Family crises like divorce are far more likely to happen after the first child is born (first marriage, then divorce, then a first child is not a common sequence) and they can disrupt later kids' upbringing.

6) The Lazy-Parent Theory: The general idea here is that first-time parents, scared of messing up their new human, commit to memory the first chapter of Battle Hymn of the Tiger Motherbut by the second or third child, they've majorly chilled out.

Hotz and Pantano settle close to Theory (6). Parents are more likely to make strict rules (about, e.g., TV-watching) and be intimately involved in the academic performance of their first children, according to survey data. They're also more likely to punish their first child's bad grades. Hotz and Pantano say moms and dads start tough and go soft to establish a "reputation" within their household for being strict—a reputation they hope will trickle down to the younger siblings who will be too respectful to misbehave later on.

The theory is interesting but not entirely persuasive. First it seems nearly-impossible to test. The survey data is much better at showing that parents chill out as they have more kids than at showing that parents chill out *because* they're explicitly establishing a reputation for strictness. Nothing in the paper seems to argue against the simpler idea that parents seem to go soft on later kids because raising four children with the same level of attention you'd afford a single child is utterly exhausting. What's more, if later-born children turn out to be less academically capable than their older simblings, it suggests that the economists' reputation theory is failing in families across the country.

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根據(jù)一個(gè)新調(diào)查顯示“家庭中更早出生的孩子一般會(huì)比他們的弟弟妹妹在學(xué)校里表現(xiàn)得好”，并且原因有可能就在于他們的父母。

根據(jù)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家約瑟夫霍茨和胡安分析得知父母在照顧第二個(gè)孩子時(shí)總是更得心應(yīng)手，不像第一個(gè)孩子時(shí)那么緊張和小心翼翼。因此，家庭中長(zhǎng)子總是會(huì)受到父母更精心的照顧并且在學(xué)校中也能得到很好的成績(jī)。

一看到這個(gè)命題的研究，大多數(shù)讀者一定會(huì)對(duì)其表示質(zhì)疑。對(duì)于照顧孩子或是其他的事情來(lái)說(shuō)，難道不是越來(lái)越熟練嗎？父母從三十到四十的過(guò)程中，難道不是越來(lái)越富有，并且所提供給孩子的物質(zhì)條件不是會(huì)越來(lái)越好嗎？我是長(zhǎng)子，我自己在家庭中開(kāi)始時(shí)總是被照顧得不是太有條理，甚至有些凌亂。甚至在與父母溝通交流中有一種不真實(shí)的感覺(jué)。就是因?yàn)檫@個(gè)原因，我相信你所說(shuō)的這個(gè)關(guān)于父母的“第一個(gè)煎餅”的理論，也就是說(shuō)，我們?cè)诘谝淮巫黾屣灂r(shí)，總是手忙腳亂的。就像我當(dāng)時(shí)被我的父母所照顧的時(shí)候一樣。我想其他那些跟我一樣在家里是第一個(gè)孩子也是一樣的感受吧。

但是根據(jù)非�？煽康膰�(guó)際出生調(diào)查表中所顯示的數(shù)據(jù)消息，跟我的預(yù)期是不一樣的。世界上出生的第一個(gè)孩子，據(jù)調(diào)查來(lái)看，相比其他的孩子，都有更高的智商，并且通常在學(xué)校里能表現(xiàn)的更好，現(xiàn)在讓我們看看1979年關(guān)于父母對(duì)于孩子表現(xiàn)的縱向數(shù)據(jù)，調(diào)查者發(fā)現(xiàn)母親都偏向認(rèn)為她們的第一個(gè)孩子的能力更好，或是更希望她們的第一個(gè)孩子能夠更有能力，或是她們認(rèn)為她們的幼子在學(xué)校里大多表現(xiàn)得一般般。（詳情看下面的圖表）

圖表一：母親對(duì)出生順序不同的孩子在學(xué)校的表現(xiàn)情況的評(píng)估

出生順序

第一個(gè) 第二個(gè) 第三個(gè) 第四個(gè)

最好 33.8% 31.8% 29.0% 27.2%

較好 25.1% 24.3% 23.6% 22.5%

中等 33.8% 35.7% 38.3% 38.5%

中下 5.5% 6.2% 7.0% 8.1%

較差 1.8% 2.0% 2.1% 3.6%

資料數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源：全國(guó)青年縱向調(diào)查（1990-2008）中關(guān)于母親對(duì)她各個(gè)孩子的評(píng)估。

數(shù)據(jù)一：出生順序與學(xué)校表現(xiàn)的關(guān)系

總之就是據(jù)母親來(lái)看，自己孩子中年長(zhǎng)的孩子在學(xué)校的表現(xiàn)比年幼的孩子要更好。

現(xiàn)在讓我們簡(jiǎn)單概括一下并回顧一下經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家對(duì)于那個(gè)“第一個(gè)煎餅”的理論，并且來(lái)做出反駁。

1.分散注意力的理論：年長(zhǎng)的孩子會(huì)享受到更多的照顧和疼愛(ài)相比于年幼的孩子，因?yàn)榧议L(zhǎng)的注意力或是疼愛(ài)會(huì)被較為年幼的孩子所分散。

2.基因不好理論：由于一些強(qiáng)有力的證據(jù)表明，一些人趨向于相信第一個(gè)孩子智商更高并且年幼的孩子的遺傳基因沒(méi)有第一個(gè)孩子所接收得好。

3.過(guò)多理論：一些父母在經(jīng)歷過(guò)第一個(gè)孩子辛苦的養(yǎng)育經(jīng)歷以后會(huì)不太再想要孩子，并且就是因?yàn)槟菢樱�年幼的孩子在她們心里不如第一個(gè)孩子其實(shí)并不是基因問(wèn)題而是她們的偏好問(wèn)題，一些家長(zhǎng)甚至于不會(huì)想要很多的孩子除非是他們的孩子已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)了問(wèn)題而迫使她們?cè)偃ド�養(yǎng)小孩，否則的話，他們真的是會(huì)覺(jué)得孩子過(guò)多。

4.自學(xué)理論：年長(zhǎng)的孩子在家庭里總是充當(dāng)老大的角色，她們總是傾向于照顧年幼的弟弟妹妹，而從小被弟弟妹妹所依賴(lài)的思想會(huì)帶到學(xué)校中去，所以他們?cè)趯W(xué)校里也傾向于表現(xiàn)得很棒，做弟弟妹妹的榜樣。

5.離婚理論：家庭危機(jī)就像離婚一樣大多數(shù)是在孩子出生以后（結(jié)婚然后離婚，爭(zhēng)取撫養(yǎng)權(quán)的壓力不在第一個(gè)孩子上，）如果生的孩子過(guò)多的話，他們也許會(huì)更有壓力而離婚。

6.懶父母理論：一些第一次當(dāng)父母的人很怕自己會(huì)陷入那些很混亂的境地，就像那個(gè)虎媽一樣，被第二個(gè)第三個(gè)孩子所“折磨”得很累，她們傾向于盡心培養(yǎng)一個(gè)孩子。

霍茨也補(bǔ)充了一些理論。父母總是對(duì)第一個(gè)孩子要求的比較嚴(yán)格：例如關(guān)于看電視的規(guī)定啊 這對(duì)孩子在學(xué)校的表現(xiàn)是很有關(guān)系的，并且有數(shù)據(jù)表明，他們甚至還會(huì)對(duì)孩子的成績(jī)不好做出懲罰。父母喜歡在家庭中營(yíng)造一種氛圍——他們希望在她們年幼孩子的耳濡目染中灌輸榮譽(yù)感和是非觀。哪些事情不能做而哪些事情是可以受到表?yè)P(yáng)的。

這樣的理論是有趣的但并不是很具有說(shuō)服力的，首先這個(gè)理論實(shí)在不好證明可信度。調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù)也只能顯示父母在孩子的培養(yǎng)過(guò)程中會(huì)表的越來(lái)越冷靜熟練，二所謂的冷靜熟練也僅僅就是他們會(huì)直接建立一種明確的獎(jiǎng)懲制度。這份數(shù)據(jù)不能表明對(duì)于培養(yǎng)一個(gè)孩子所付出的的辛苦可以等同于培養(yǎng)四個(gè)。顯而易見(jiàn)，培養(yǎng)四個(gè)優(yōu)秀的孩子要比一個(gè)累得多。更多的是，第一個(gè)孩子比其他的孩子更聰明的理論也在暗示一些經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家所謂的“獎(jiǎng)懲制度”在現(xiàn)如今的家庭中也是說(shuō)不通的。